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The ANU Southeast Asia Institute (SEAI) organised the inaugural Southeast Asia Regional Geopolitical Update on Monday 1 May 2023, held in-person on ANU campus, with an additional online audience. This landmark Regional Geopolitical Update adopted the original and timely theme of 'Crossroads, Lifelines, and Guardrails'. We tackled Southeast Asia’s geographical, historical, and socio-political condition as a crossroads for trans-regional flows of people, goods, beliefs and practices. We also unpacked Southeast Asia’s current sense of standing at the crossroads of game-changing geopolitical transitions. The Update addressed four inter-linked question sets:

  • Can Southeast Asian states continue to avoid invidious choices between the great powers? What does ‘strategic equilibrium’ look like for Southeast Asians?
  • How will Southeast Asian political economies ensure the security of critical supply chains and technology, and the sustainability of development imperatives?
  • What are the best ways of securing sea lines of communication and vital land routes given strategic uncertainties?
  • How can the region update and innovate mechanisms for guarding against intramural disputes as well as external tensions and armed conflicts?

Keynote Address: Dr Vivian BALAKRISHNAN, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Republic of Singapore

Update Convenor: Professor Evelyn GOH, Australian National University

Speakers are leading scholars and practitioners of Southeast Asian security, including:

  • Associate Professor Pichamon YEOPHANTONG, Deakin University
  • Dr VŨ LÊ Thái Hoàng, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam
  • Dr Rizal SUKMA, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Jakarta
  • Dr Darren LIM, Australian National University
  • Professor Joseph LIOW, Nanyang Technological University
  • Professor KUIK Cheng-Chwee, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
  • Professor KHONG Yuen Foong, National University of Singapore
  • Professor Natasha HAMILTON-HART, University of Auckland
  • Professor Mely CABALLERO-ANTHONY, Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • HE Dr Chanborey CHEUNBORAN, Ambassador of Cambodia to Australia
  • Professor Jay BATONGBACAL, University of the Philippines
  • Vice Admiral TNI Dr Amarulla OCTAVIAN, Indonesian Defence University
Prof. Evelyn Goh convened the Inaugural 2023 Geopolitical Update.
Prof. Evelyn Goh convened the Inaugural 2023 Geopolitical Update. Photo Courtesy: Emir Syailendra

Prof. Evelyn Goh Convened the Inaugural SEAI 2023 Geopolitical Update

After the welcoming remarks by Professor Sally Wheeler, ANU Deputy Vice-Chancellor (International & Corporate), the Update officially began with a keynote speech by the Singapore Foreign Minister, Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, chaired by Professor Evelyn Goh.

Professor Goh convened the 2023 Geopolitical Update with her incisive take on regional order. In her opening remarks, Professor Goh suggested that the Asia-Pacific is moving from a single-pillared regional order to one like a traditional house resting on multiple stilts. She also highlighted Southeast Asia’s historical position of being at the crossroads of trade and politics, causing regional polities to develop multiple allegiances and authority relationships with larger powers.  

Bio

Evelyn Goh FBA FASSA is the Shedden Professor of Strategic Policy Studies at the Australian National University, where she is also the Director of the Southeast Asia Institute, and Interim Head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre.

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Professor Goh is a scholar specialising in security and international relations in East Asia. She has published extensively on US-China and China-Japan relations (historical and contemporary), and advanced new theorising on power, order and change in International Relations. Her original research and conceptualisation of Southeast Asian strategies towards great powers remain influential, and she was also one of the earliest scholars to study post-Cold War transboundary environmental security in the Mekong basin. Evelyn is the author of several acclaimed books: The Struggle for Order: Hegemony, Hierarchy and Transition in Post-Cold War East Asia, Constructing the US Rapprochement with China, 1961-1974, and Re-thinking Sino-Japanese Alienation: History Problems and Historical Opportunities (with Barry Buzan). Her current projects study the interactions between Chinese investment and influence, and domestic politics in Southeast Asia.  

 Dr Balakhrisnan (Singaporean Foreign Minister)
Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan’s Keynote Remarks at Australian National University’s Southeast Asia Regional Geopolitical Update in Canberra, 1 May 2023. Photo Courtesy: Emir Syailendra

Singapore Foreign Minister Dr. Vivian Balakrishnan was the Keynote Speaker for the 2023 Geopolitical Update

Dr Vivian Balakrishnan opened the 2023 Geopolitical Update with his insightful keynote. 

In the keynote speech, Dr Balakrishnan picked up the ‘stilts’ analogy and observed that Southeast Asia now found itself in a ‘multipolar but asymmetrical’ regional order. He stressed that Southeast Asian policymakers face a ‘perfect storm’ of complex security challenges, and want to avoid the ‘invidious choice’ between the United States and China. Dr Balakrishnan also encouraged Australia to continue playing its ‘stabilising role’ in the region through its technological strengths and reputation as an advocate for international law and free trade. In the Q&A, Dr Balakrishnan expressed his hopes for the continued relevance of ASEAN, the need for peace in the region, and the urgency to do ‘fundamental self-surgery’ on Southeast Asia’s political and economic domestic systems to meet the geopolitical, ecological, and economic challenges of tomorrow.

Professor Helen Sullivan, Dean of ANU College of Asia and the Pacific, closed the session with a formal vote of thanks and presented a gift to Dr Balakrishnan.

Bio

Dr Vivian Balakrishnan has been the Minister for Foreign Affairs in Singapore since October 2015. 

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During his tenure, Singapore hosted the landmark Singapore Summit between the leaders of the United States and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea in 2018, which helped to pave the way for peace and stability in the region. Dr Balakrishnan has been a strong advocate for multilateralism and international cooperation, particularly in the fight against COVID-19. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Singapore co-chaired the Friends of the COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access (COVAX) Facility, which supports vaccine multilateralism and access to COVID-19 vaccines for all. Ministry of Foreign Affairs also undertook its largest consular operation to bring home Singaporeans stranded overseas. Dr Balakrishnan has also been involved in efforts to combat climate change and promote sustainable development. He was a ministerial facilitator for negotiations that led to the Paris Agreement on climate change at the United Nations. He has also played a leading role in promoting sustainable urban development through initiatives such as the World Cities Summit, which brings together urban leaders from around the world to share best practices and innovative solutions for sustainable urban development.

Dr Katrin Travoullion of ANU chaired the panel, which grappled with two questions: ‘Can Southeast Asian states continue to avoid invidious choices between the great powers? What does ‘strategic equilibrium’ look like for Southeast Asians?’

Professor Kuik observed that hedging would remain the preferred strategy for Southeast Asian states, given the prevailing ambiguities in the strategic environment. Dr Hoang spoke about the multiple nexi that complicated foreign policy formulation in Southeast Asia and the need to keep mainland Southeast Asia within the optics of any geopolitical analysis of the region.

Professor Khong provided a thought-provoking analysis that questioned conventional understandings of the idea of ‘strategic equilibrium’ and argued that the current ‘equilibrium’ is a bipolar reality that is not necessarily comfortable and leads to hard choices for Southeast Asian leaders. Dr Lim unpacked the idea of hedging in the economic context, suggesting that Southeast Asian states will increasingly find it unfeasible to hedge in the important realm of technology, where interdependence is being ‘weaponised’. He predicted that the challenges for regional statecraft will be greatest in the under-studied area of standards development.

Prof. Yuen Foong Khong's Remarks
Prof. Yuen Foong Khong's Remarks. Photo courtesy: Emir Syailendra

Professor KHONG Yuen Foong, National University of Singapore

Professor Khong Yuen Foong is the Li Ka Shing Professor in Political Science at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, at the National University of Singapore.

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He was formerly a Professor of International Relations, and a Professorial Fellow of Nuffield College, Oxford University. His research interests include United States foreign policy, the international relations of the Asia Pacific, and cognitive approaches to international relations. Professor Khong’s book, Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965 (Princeton, 1992; sixth printing 2006) was co-winner of the American Political Science Associations Political Psychology Book Award (1994). He also received the Erik Erikson Award for distinguished early career contributions to political psychology in 1996. A former Vice-President of the International Studies Association (U.S.A), 1999-2000, he has also served on the Social Science Research Council-MacArthur Foundation Committee on International Peace and Security. Professor Khong’s recent publications include ‘Power as Prestige in World Politics’, International Affairs (January 2019), ‘The American Tributary System’, The Chinese Journal of International Politics (2013) and ‘The United States Response to China’s Rise’, International Security (2013/2014). He is currently working on two long term projects, International Politics: The Rules of the Game and The American Tributary System. 

Prof. Cheng-Chwee Kuik's Remarks.
Prof. Cheng-Chwee Kuik's Remarks. Photo courtesy: Emir Syailendra

Professor KUIK Cheng-Chwee, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia

Dr Kuik Cheng-Chwee is a Professor of International Relations and Head of the Centre for Asian Studies, at the Institute of Malaysian and International Studies, at the University Kebangsaan Malaysia (National University of Malaysia).

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He is concurrently a non-resident Fellow at Johns Hopkins University’s Foreign Policy Institute (FPI). Dr Kuik’s research focuses on smaller-state foreign and defence policies, Asian security, and international relations. He has held consultant positions for Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and Asian Development Bank (ADB). He also served as Head of the Writing Team for the Government of Malaysia’s inaugural Defence White Paper. Dr Kuik’s essay, ‘The Essence of Hedging’, won the Michael Leifer Memorial Prize awarded by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. He is also a co-author (with David Lampton and Selina Ho) of Rivers of Iron: Railroads and Chinese Power in Southeast Asia (2020) and co-editor (with Alice Ba and Sueo Sudo) of Institutionalizing East Asia (2016). His current projects include: hedging in international relations, domestic politics and foreign policy choices, and the geopolitics of connectivity cooperation.  

Dr VŨ LÊ Thái Hoàng, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam
Photo courtesy: Emir Syailendra

Dr VŨ LÊ Thái Hoàng, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam

Dr Vũ Lê Thái Hoàng is the Director General of the Institute for Foreign Policy and Strategic Studies, and Dean of the Faculty of International Politics and Diplomacy at the Diplomatic Academy of Viet Nam.

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Dr Vu held several roles at the Viet Nam Ministry of Foreign Affairs; including the Deputy Director General of the Policy Planning Department. From 2014-2018, he was Minister Counselor and Chief Political Officer at the Viet Nam Embassy to the United States. He was named an Eisenhower Fellow in 2014 and participated in the American Jewish Committee's seminar for US-based diplomats in Israel in 2016. Dr Vu also served as the Deputy Director General at the National Secretariat for ASEAN 2020 (ASEAN Department) in 2018.  He holds a doctorate in Asian Studies from the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom. He received a Master of Science of Strategic Studies from the Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. 

Dr Darren LIM, Australian National University
Photo courtesy: Emir Syailendra

Dr Darren LIM, Australian National University

Dr Darren J Lim is a Senior Lecturer at the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific at The Australian National University, where he researches and teaches in the field of international relations, at the intersection of international political economy, international security and global governance.

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Dr Lim’s major research interests focus on geoeconomics (including economic coercion and technology competition), grand strategy in the context of power transitions and international order, and the Indo-Pacific region. The issues covered by his published research include patterns and methods of economic coercion; Sino-US technology competition; how East and South Asian states navigate relations between the US and China through hedging strategies; tourism as an instrument of Chinese economic statecraft; conceptualising and measuring power in Australian foreign policy; and ‘doxing democracy’. He is currently working on a variety of topics including a book project on geoeconomics, and paper projects on the logic of a China-led international order, informal economic sanctions, and Australia’s management of bilateral relations with China.  

Panel 1 - Southeast Asia as and at Crossroads
Photo courtesy: Emir Syailendra

Dr Katrin Travouillon Chaired Panel 1

Dr Katrin Travouillon is a Lecturer at the Department of Political and Social Change at the Coral Bell School, Australian National University.

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Her research focuses on the transnational sphere as a public arena that shapes the identities, ideas, and interests of Cambodia’s political actors. Drawing on archival materials and interviews, Dr Travouillon’s work explores the sources of legitimacy that Cambodian actors mobilize to shape their policies and build authority vis-à-vis their international and local audiences. Her past research projects include the DFG (German Research Foundation) funded project ‘The Institutionalization of Interpretative Authority in Post-Conflict Societies. An Analysis of the Transitional Authority in Kosovo and Cambodia’ (2010-2014). From 2016 to 2018, Dr Travouillon was a Tobis Fellow at the University of California Irvine, where the focus of her research gradually moved to contemporary democratization and nation-building practices. Her current work centres on the ways in which politicians and political activists engage with the practice and rhetoric of the ‘international community’ in Cambodia, emphasising the discursive and affective dimensions of political change. 

Panel 1 - Q and A
Photo courtesy: Emir Syailendra
Unity
Photo Courtesy: Wikimedia Commons

SEAI Exclusive: In the Long Shadow of Great Power Politics: The Imperative of Southeast Asian States’ Regional Unity

Prof Joseph Liow, Dean and Tan Kah Kee Chair Professor of Comparative and International Politics at the College of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, offers a commentary on the imperative of Southeast Asian States’ regional unity exclusively to the ANU Southeast Asia Institute Website. 

Chaired by Dr Nicholas Chan, the panel engaged with two questions: Given growing geopolitical challenges, how can Southeast Asian countries and societal actors best maintain their developmental imperatives? How will Southeast Asian political economies ensure the security of critical supply chains and technology?

Dr Yeophantong kicked off the panel by steering the focus towards ‘everyday security’ and stressed the need for developmental imperatives to serve the local communities, human rights, and ecological interests. Professor Caballero-Anthony extended the discussion to the ideas of cooperative and comprehensive security, emphasising the urgency of multilateral and multi-dimensional efforts at adapting to and mitigating climate, food, and human security challenges.

Professor Hamilton-Hart articulated a complicated picture whereby Southeast Asia states could benefit from ‘friend-shoring’ developments in the short-term; but longer-term prospects would be determined by institutional capacity and statecraft to deliver on domestic economic imperatives and to navigate an uncertain geopolitical environment. Dr Cheunboran reiterated the need to embrace the principles of ASEAN Centrality and emphasised that external powers should not just pay ‘lip service’ to the idea.

Professor Natasha HAMILTON-HART, University of Auckland
Photo courtesy: Kyle Leyden

Professor Natasha HAMILTON-HART, University of Auckland

Professor Natasha Hamilton-Hart is the Director of the New Zealand Asia Institute and Professor in the Department of Management and International Business, at the University of Auckland Business School.

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Professor Hamilton-Hart's research focuses on business in Southeast Asia, particularly in the banking and natural resource sectors, as well as on foreign investment flows and financial regulation. She has a BA(Hons) from the University of Otago and a PhD from Cornell University. Professor Hamilton-Hart joined the University of Auckland in 2011, after teaching at the National University of Singapore for ten years and holding a postdoctoral fellowship at the Australian National University. She is the author of Asian States, Asian Bankers: Central Banking in Southeast Asia and Hard Interests, Soft Illusions: Southeast Asia and American Power, both with Cornell University Press. Her most recent research examines the palm oil industry in Malaysia and Indonesia. 

Associate Professor Pichamon YEOPHANTONG, Deakin University
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Associate Professor Pichamon YEOPHANTONG, Deakin University

Dr Pichamon Yeophantong is an Associate Professor and Head of Research at the Centre for Future Defence and National Security, Deakin University at the Australian War College.

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As a political scientist and China specialist, Dr Yeophantong conducts research into Chinese foreign policy and, specifically, the social and environmental impacts of Chinese overseas investment in the developing world. She also teaches and conducts field-based research on business and human rights, and more broadly, on the political economy of sustainable development in the Asia-Pacific. Dr Yeophantong sits on the Board and Research Committee of Jubilee Australia Research Centre as well as on the Advisory Committee of the Australian Water Partnership. She is also a Senior Research Fellow (non-resident) at the Wong MNC Center. Since May 2022, Dr Yeophantong has served as the Member from Asia-Pacific States on the United Nations Working Group on Business and Human Rights. She also leads the Responsible Business Lab and the Environmental Justice and Human Rights Project, which are funded by an Australian Research Council DECRA Fellowship.  

Professor Mely CABALLERO-ANTHONY, Rajaratnam School of International Studies
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Professor Mely CABALLERO-ANTHONY, Rajaratnam School of International Studies

Dr Mely Caballero-Anthony is a Professor of International Relations and holds the President’s Chair for International Relations and Security Studies. 

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She is also Head of the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Professor Caballero-Anthony’s research interests include regionalism and multilateralism in Asia-Pacific, human security and non-traditional security, nuclear security, conflict prevention and global governance. She has published extensively on a broad range of security issues in Asia-Pacific in peer-reviewed journals and international academic press. Her latest books, both single-authored and co-edited, include: Negotiating Governance on Non-Traditional Security in Southeast Asia and Beyond (New York: Columbia University Press, 2018), An Introduction to Non-Traditional Security Studies (London: SAGE Publications Ltd, 2016), Asia on the Move (Japan: JCIE, 2015), and Human Security and Climate Change (London: Routledge, 2014). Professor Cabellero-Anthony has also served as the Secretary-General of the Consortium on Non-Traditional Security Studies in Asia since 2008. She is currently a member of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network on Nuclear Non-Proliferation (APLN). 

HE Dr Chanborey CHEUNBORAN, Ambassador of Cambodia to Australia
Photo courtesy: Emir Syailendra

HE Dr Chanborey CHEUNBORAN, Ambassador of Cambodia to Australia

His Excellency Dr Chanborey Cheunboran is the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Kingdom of Cambodia to Australia (concurrently New Zealand).

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His areas of interest include Cambodia’s foreign policy, small state foreign policy, security studies and international relations in the Asia-Pacific. He is a member of the Board of Directors of the Phnom Penh-based think tank, the Asian Vision Institute (AVI). Dr Cheunboran was formally the Director-General of the Information, Research and Analysis Group at the Cambodian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation (MFAIC). He received his PhD in International Political and Strategic Studies from The Australian National University. Dr Cheunboran earned a Master in Public Management from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in conjunction with the Harvard Kennedy School; MA in Diplomacy and International Studies from Rangsit University, Thailand; and BA in International Relations from the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam.

Dr Nicholas Chan, Australian National University
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Dr Nicholas CHAN Chaired Panel 2

Dr Nicholas Chan is a postdoctoral fellow (Asian Security) at the Strategic Defence and Studies Centre, Australian National University.

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He holds a PhD from the Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Cambridge. His PhD project examines the position of Islam in Malaysia’s counter-terrorism on two levels: the first from the perspective of Muslim status-seeking at the global level, and the second revolves around daily knowledge practices of 'terrorist' construction across different sites of governance. Nicholas’s research interest lies in the intersection of religion and politics, with a specific focus on areas such as the politics of status-seeking, religion and social media, as well as the role of millenarian thinking in politics. Nicholas is also the co-investigator of a Meta research award in misinformation and polarisation, focusing specifically on the viral politics of right-wing populism in Malaysia. Nicholas has published in journals such as Foreign Policy Analysis, Critical Studies in Terrorism, and Critical Security Studies. 

Panel 2 – Securing Lifelines at the Crossroads
Photo courtesy: Kyle Leyden
HE Dr Chanborey CHEUNBORAN, Ambassador of Cambodia to Australia
Photo courtesy: Emir Syailendra

SEAI Exclusive: His Excellency Dr. CHEUNBORAN Chanborey's Remarks at the 2023 Southeast Asia Regional Geopolitical Update

H.E. Dr. CHEUNBORAN Chanborey, Ambassador of Cambodia to Australia and New Zealand, offers a commentary on the Cambodian perspective on regional politics exclusively to the ANU Southeast Asia Institute Website. 

Chaired by Dr Eve Warburton of ANU, the panel sought to address the following questions: What are the best ways of securing sea lines of communication and vital land routes in Southeast Asia, given strategic uncertainties? How can the region update and innovate mechanisms for guarding against intramural disputes as well as external tensions and armed conflicts?

Professor Liow initiated the conversation by observing ASEAN’s flawed record in managing intramural disputes and highlighted that the fate of the concept of ASEAN Centrality also hinges on ASEAN’s capability to maintain its internal unity. Dr Sukma elaborated on those points by arguing that that ASEAN should pursue internal reforms to ameliorate its shortcomings while striving for strategic autonomy amid great power competition.

Professor Batongbacal highlighted that the security of the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) is now entangled with the South China Sea disputes and felt that the ASEAN framework, as it stands, is inadequate to the challenge. Dr Octavian advocated improvement of multilateral maritime security cooperation between Southeast Asia and regional partners, identifying transnational organised crime as posing a major threat to sea lines of communication.

Dr Rizal SUKMA, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Jakarta
Photo courtesy: Emir Syailendra

Dr Rizal SUKMA, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Jakarta

Dr Rizal Sukma is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta. Previously, he served as Indonesia’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Ireland, and the International Maritime Organization (IMO), London, from 2016 to 2020.

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He has worked extensively on such issues as Southeast Asian security, ASEAN, Indonesia’s defence and foreign policy, military reform, Islam and politics, and domestic political changes in Indonesia. Dr Sukma has served as a member of the National Committee on Strategic Defence Review at the Ministry of Defence and the National Drafting Committee for the National Defence Bill (2000–2002) and the Armed Forces Bill (2002–2003). He was the first Indonesian to receive the Nakasone Award, in July 2005, and named one 100 Global Thinkers in 2009 by Foreign Policy magazine. Dr Sukma has published three books: Security Operations in Aceh: Goals, Consequences, and Lessons (Washington, DC: East-West Centre, 2004); Islam in Indonesia’s Foreign Policy (London: Routledge, 2003), and Indonesia and China: The Politics of A Troubled Relationship (London: Routledge, 1999). 

Associate Professor Batongbacal
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Professor Jay BATONGBACAL, University of the Philippines

Professor Batongbacal is the Director of the UP Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea.

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He teaches courses on Property, Obligations & Contracts, and Law of the Sea and Natural Resources. Professor Batongbacal’s career spans a diverse field of marine policy, including: marine territorial and jurisdictional issues, international maritime boundary negotiations, high seas fisheries, seafaring, shipping, marine environmental protection, coastal resource management, maritime security, and archipelagic studies. His doctoral research examined the relationship between ocean energy development and its effects on adjacent coastal communities from the viewpoint of ecological social justice, combining research techniques and methodologies from the social and applied sciences. Professor Batongbacal was also a member of the technical team that prepared and defended the Philippines’ claim to a continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles in the Benham Rise Region, made in a Submission filed with the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) pursuant to the provisions of Article 76 of the Law of the Sea Convention. The CLCS recognized Philippine jurisdiction over the Benham Rise Region in April 2012. 

Professor Joseph LIOW, Nanyang Technological University
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Professor Joseph LIOW, Nanyang Technological University

Prof Joseph Chin Yong Liow is the Tan Kah Kee Chair in Comparative and International Politics at Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

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He was the former Dean at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and currently Dean of College of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences at NTU. Dr Liow’s research interests encompass Muslim politics and social movements in Southeast Asia and the geopolitics and geoeconomics of the Asia Pacific region. Dr Liow’s most recent single-authored books are Ambivalent Engagement: The United States and Regional Security in Southeast Asia after the Cold War (Brookings 2017), Religion and Nationalism in Southeast Asia (Cambridge University Press, 2016) and Dictionary of the Modern Politics of Southeast Asia, fourth edition (Routledge, 2014). A regular columnist for The Straits Times, his commentaries on international affairs have also appeared in New York Times, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, National Interest, Nikkei Asian Review, and the Wall Street Journal. He also serves as Singapore’s representative on the advisory board of the ASEAN Institute of Peace and Reconciliation formed under the auspices of the ASEAN Charter. 

Vice Admiral TNI Dr Amarulla OCTAVIAN, Indonesian Defence University
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Vice Admiral TNI Dr Amarulla OCTAVIAN, Indonesian Defence University

Vice Admiral Dr. Amarulla Octavian is the Rector of the Indonesian Defence University.

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Previously he was the Commander of the Indonesian Naval Command and Staff College (Sekolah Staf Dan Komando Angkatan Laut – Seskoal)(2018—2020). He graduated from the Indonesian Naval Academy in 1988 and gained a doctorate from the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, University of Indonesia, in 2013. His dissertation was titled ‘Globalization and Transformation of Indonesian Navy Educational Institutions: A Sociological Study of Indonesian Navy Command and Staff Schools’. His previous positions include Dean of the Defence Management Faculty of the Indonesian Defence University (2016—2018), Chief of Staff of the Indonesian Western Fleet Command (2014—2016), Commander of Naval Combat Task Force of West Fleet Command (Gugus Tempur Laut Komando Armada RI Kawasan Barat – Guspurlabar) (2013—2014), and Adjutant to the President of the Republic of Indonesia Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (2009—2012). 

Chair: Dr Eve WARBURTON, Australian National University
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Dr Eve Warburton Chaired Panel 3

Dr Eve Warburton is a research fellow at the Department of Political and Social Change in the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs.

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She is also the Director of ANU Indonesia Institute at the College of Asia and the Pacific. Her research is concerned broadly with problems of representation and governance in young and developing democracies, with a focus on Southeast Asia and Indonesia in particular. She has published in leading disciplinary and area studies journals on topics of democratic representation, state-business relations, and the political economy of policymaking in Indonesia. Her first book manuscript, Resource Nationalism in Indonesia: Booms, Big Business and the State, is in-press with Cornell University Press. 

Panel 3
Photo courtesy: Emir Syailendra
 Dr Balakhrisnan (Singaporean Foreign Minister) and Prof Evelyn Goh
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Two Essays from the 2023 ANU Regional Geopolitical Update Occupied an Entire Page in the Straits Times

Timed to coincidence with the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, two essays from the 2023 ANU Regional Geopolitical Update were published in the Straits Times. The first essay by Prof Evelyn Goh is titled "S-E Asia at a crossroads why it must resist being pushed into zero-sum boxes", noting that regional leaders need to find new ways to play positive-sum games in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment. The second essay by Dr Rizal Sukma is titled "Here’s how Asean can build guardrails for regional stability", arguing that the grouping needs to focus on five areas to be a more effective ‘manager’ of the regional order. 

Read the article online here (Goh's essay) and here (Sukma's essay).

Download links below.

The cloverleaf interchange between US 131, M-6 and 68th Street in Cutlerville, Michigan, United States, shows many of the features of controlled-access highways: entry and exit ramps, median strips for opposing traffic, no at-grade intersections and no direct access to properties.
Public domain

The Guardrails Quintet: Insights from Southeast Asian Experts and Scholars

Find five articles from the 2023 Southeast Asia Regional Geopolitical Update that grappled with the discussion of security guardrails, which we called the Guardrail Quintet. 

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Guardrails is a term to describe a series of overlapping mechanisms to shield the region from the impact of structural pressures such as great power rivalry. As highlighted by last month’s Joint Communique between Indonesia and Australia, the goal is to foster a condition where “competition is managed responsibly, where sovereignty and territorial integrity are respected, and where countries can exercise their agency free from coercion.”

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, in his remarks at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last month, noted the importance of guardrails, which serve as a “pressure valve of dialogue.” Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan asserted during the 2023 Southeast Regional Geopolitical Update at the Australian National University that the region must develop guardrails in order to shield it from “the most intense [U.S.-China] competitions across multiple domains in our lifetimes.”

But new times call for a new approach to the creation of guardrails and the dilemma of what to do with the pre-existing, and in some cases outdated, security mechanisms.

The essays:

Emir Syailendra's piece titled "Southeast Asian States Need to Reassess the Region’s Security Guardrails," gives an overall overview of Southeast Asia security mechanisms and the way forward. 

Vu Le Thai Hoang and Ngo Di Lan's piece titled "Searching for Guardrails: A Vietnamese Perspective on Strategic Equilibrium Amid Uncertainty" offers a Vietnamese view on the need for Southeast Asian countries to seize the initiative and collectively assert their role in shaping a regional order in a state of flux.

Jay Batongbacal's piece titled "Developing Guardrails for Regional Stability: A View from the Philippines" argues that Manila sees a variety of different threats to its maritime security, each requiring a different tool or approach.

Amarulla Octavian's piece titled "Establishing Maritime Guardrails in the Indo-Pacific: Mutual Cooperation" argues the importance of harmonising various interests and cooperation between Australia and Indonesia in establishing maritime guardrails. 

Rizal Sukma's piece titled "Here’s How ASEAN Can Build Guardrails for Regional Stability" argues that the grouping needs to focus on five areas to be a more effective ‘manager’ of the regional order.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australia and the ANU Southeast Asia Institute jointly organised a Policy Roundtable  on "Southeast Asia Geopolitics: Challenges and Transitions" on May 2nd, 2022, Gareth Evans Theatre, R. G. Casey Building, 10 am – 11.30 am. 

This Roundtable built upon the insights and debates from the Update to facilitate a more focused policy dialogue between a small group of these visiting speakers and colleagues from DFAT and other parts of the Australian Public Service with an interest in Southeast Asia. The event was conducted under Chatham House Rules to enable a more free-flowing discussion.

The speakers covered a range of topics that extended from their presentation at the Update. They include Australia’s good reputation in Southeast Asia as an asset for its diplomacy; the need to direct attention towards geopolitical development in mainland Southeast Asia; non-traditional security issues requiring concrete actions that matched up with the rhetoric; Transnational Organised Crime (TOC) as a significant area for furthering maritime cooperation; and a sense of frustration amongst ASEAN practitioners due to a lack of progress on the Myanmar issue.

Speakers:

Professor Evelyn Goh (Chair) Shedden Professor of Strategic Policy Studies and Director of ANU Southeast Asia Institute.

Dr. Rizal Sukma | Senior Fellow, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta.

Professor Kuik Cheng-chwee | Professor of International Relations and Head of the Centre for Asian Studies, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (National University of Malaysia).

Professor Mely Cabarello-Anthony | Professor of International Relations and Head of the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS)

Dr. Vũ Lê Thái Hoàng | Acting Director-General of the Institute for Foreign Policy and Strategic Studies and Dean of the Faculty of International Politics and Diplomacy, Diplomatic Academy of Viet Nam.

Vice Admiral Dr. Amrulla Octavian | Rector, Indonesian Defence University.

Policy Roundtable:  Southeast Asia Geopolitics: Challenges and Transitions
Photo courtesy: Emir Syailendra
Roundtable on Southeast Asian States
Photo courtesy: Emir Syailendra
Roundtable on Southeast Asia
Photo courtesy: Emir Syailendra

Emir Syailendra (SEAI working committee member and the host of Southeast Asianists limited series) interviewed three Update speakers: Prof Khong Yuen Foong, Dr Rizal Sukma, and Prof Cheng-Chwee Kuik. 

These three interviews are part of an eight-episode original limited interview series by the ANU SEAI called Southeast Asianists: Scholarly Profile. These recordings allow us to glean into these scholars' journeys, bodies of works, and thoughts about the future of the region. See the Southeast Asianists Info Page for further information. 

Roundtable on Southeast Asian States' Threat Perception
SEAI Roundtable

Reassessing the Region’s Security Guardrails

Inspired by various discussions during the Southeast Asia Regional Geopolitical Update at the Australian National University, Canberra, on May 1, 2023, Emir Syailendra, host of the Southeast Asianists and organiser of the Regional Geopolitical Update, suggested that "new times call for a new approach to the creation of guardrails and the dilemma of what to do with the pre-existing, and in some cases outdated, security mechanisms." He grappled with the question of what might replace the flexible and inclusive security mechanisms of the post-Cold War era which are beginning to decay.